Download and read online Causality in PDF and EPUB Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.
Download and read online Causality in PDF and EPUB Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artificial intelligence,...
Download and read online Causality in PDF and EPUB Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. The book will facilitate the incorporation of causal analysis as an integral part of the standard curriculum in statistics, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Causality will be of interest to professionals and students in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences.
Download and read online Causal Inference in Statistics in PDF and EPUB Many of the concepts and terminology surrounding modern causal inference can be quite intimidating to the novice. Judea Pearl presents a book ideal for beginners in statistics, providing a comprehensive introduction to the field of causality. Examples from classical statistics are presented throughout to demonstrate the need for causality in resolving decision-making dilemmas posed by data. Causal methods are also compared to traditional statistical methods, whilst questions are provided at the end of each section to aid student learning.
Download and read online Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems in PDF and EPUB Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognition--in short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.
Download and read online Counterfactuals and Causal Inference in PDF and EPUB This new edition aims to convince social scientists to take a counterfactual approach to the core questions of their fields.
Download and read online Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete Data Perspectives in PDF and EPUB This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real–world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.
Download and read online Modeling and Reasoning with Bayesian Networks in PDF and EPUB This book provides a thorough introduction to the formal foundations and practical applications of Bayesian networks. It provides an extensive discussion of techniques for building Bayesian networks that model real-world situations, including techniques for synthesizing models from design, learning models from data, and debugging models using sensitivity analysis. It also treats exact and approximate inference algorithms at both theoretical and practical levels. The author assumes very little background on the covered subjects, supplying in-depth discussions for theoretically inclined readers and enough practical details to provide an algorithmic cookbook for the system developer.
Download and read online Causality Probability and Time in PDF and EPUB "This book presents a new approach to causal inference and explanation, addressing both the timing and complexity of relationships. The method's feasibility and success is demonstrated through theoretical and experimental case studies"--
Download and read online Actual Causality in PDF and EPUB A new approach for defining causality and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degrees of blame, and causal explanation.
Download and read online Explanation in Causal Inference in PDF and EPUB "A comprehensive book on methods for mediation and interaction. The only book to approach this topic from the perspective of causal inference. Numerous software tools provided. Easy-to-read and accessible. Examples drawn from diverse fields. An essential reference for anyone conducting empirical research in the biomedical or social sciences"--
Download and read online Targeted Learning in PDF and EPUB The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject. The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the target parameter representing the scientific question of interest. This book is aimed at both statisticians and applied researchers interested in causal inference and general effect estimation for observational and experimental data. Part I is an accessible introduction to super learning and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator, including related concepts necessary to understand and apply these methods. Parts II-IX handle complex data structures and topics applied researchers will immediately recognize from their own research, including time-to-event outcomes, direct and indirect effects, positivity violations, case-control studies, censored data, longitudinal data, and genomic studies.
Download and read online Error and Inference in PDF and EPUB Explores the nature of error and inference, drawing on exchanges on experimental reasoning, reliability, and the objectivity of science.
Download and read online Causation Prediction and Search in PDF and EPUB This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions, experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now and then members of the statistical community express misgivings about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its purpose.
Download and read online Estimation Inference and Specification Analysis in PDF and EPUB This book examines the consequences of misspecifications ranging from the fundamental to the nonexistent for the interpretation of likelihood-based methods of statistical estimation and interference. Professor White first explores the underlying motivation for maximum-likelihood estimation, treats the interpretation of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) for misspecified probability models and gives the conditions under which parameters of interest can be consistently estimated despite misspecification and the consequences of misspecification for hypothesis testing in estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix of the parameters. The analysis concludes with an examination of methods by which the possibility of misspecification can be empirically investigated and offers a variety of tests for misspecification.